Global P2P (Re)Commerce Platform
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Shack and Expected Value Calculator · 18 min
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Staged Conviction Model
What Probability/Conviction Is Needed for a Positive Expected Value?
The first hurdle is the hardest. Set your conviction for each stage independently, assuming the previous one has been cleared.
0.80% ownership
$5M
0.48% after dilution
Tutti.ch → Amazon
Assign your conditional conviction per stage
Each input is P(clears this stage | previous already cleared). The chain multiplies into a cumulative probability of reaching each valuation.
Tutti.ch (~$100M) · 2M users
Depop (~$1B) · 30M users
Vinted (~$10B) · 100M users
MercadoLibre (~$100B) · 120M users
Amazon (~$2T) · 310M users
Stages are sequential: clearing each one is conditional on the previous. The remaining probability mass is the implicit chance of failing before reaching the first hurdle.
Power-law outcomes dominate venture returns.



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